Why forecasts about video are shaky
Predictions about media have a poor record. Technologies that were widely expected to take over, such as stereoscopic television at home, did not reach the scale predicted, while services that seemed like niche ideas, such as sharing home videos online, reshaped the industry. A careful outlook therefore separates three things: trends that are already underway, possibilities that are plausible, and claims that are mostly marketing.
This article follows that structure. It describes directions and the reasons behind them, and avoids specific dates or numbers, since these tend to age badly.
Trends already underway
Viewing is concentrated on screens that connect to the internet. Connected TVs, phones and tablets are now ordinary places to watch. The habits formed there, including searching, choosing and pausing, are unlikely to reverse. Our articles on connected TVs and mobile viewing look at each screen.
The boundary between “TV” and “online video” is blurring. Streaming services have added advertising, live events and channel-like experiences, while television companies have moved onto the internet. The longer history is in our look at how distribution has changed. It seems more likely that these categories keep merging than that one cleanly wins.
Advertising is becoming part of streaming. Cheaper plans with advertising and free ad-supported channels are an established part of the market. How much they grow, and how well advertising can be personalised and measured, is still being worked out.
Platforms and creators keep sharing the stage. Professional studios and independent creators compete for the same attention, and the creator economy has become a standard part of the video landscape.
Plausible directions
More AI in production and editing. Tools that help with transcription, captioning, rough cuts, dubbing and clean-up are becoming common. More ambitious generative video tools are improving, but their quality, cost, legal status and acceptance by audiences are all unsettled. Rules about labelling, such as synthetic media labels, are being discussed in many places, and it is hard to say how they will develop.
Consolidation and bundling of services. Because service fragmentation frustrates viewers and is expensive for companies, partnerships and bundles seem likely to continue. Whether that leads to a few large services or a looser mix of aggregators is open.
Short and long formats coexisting. Short-form clips dominate time on some platforms, while long-form video on television screens remains strong for films, series and live sport. Both seem likely to persist, with creators using one to feed the other.
Live video as a bigger share. Live streaming of sport, events and creator broadcasts offers something on-demand video cannot: shared timing. Technical improvements in stream latency make interaction more practical.
Better compression. Newer codecs such as the AV1 codec aim to deliver comparable quality with less data, which could lower delivery costs and improve viewing on weak connections. Adoption depends on device support, licensing and encoding costs, so progress tends to be gradual.
Growth outside wealthy markets. Much of the audience growth in coming years may come from places where mobile is the main route to the internet. The patterns there are discussed in our article on emerging markets.
Claims to treat with caution
Immersive formats replacing the screen. Virtual reality, 360-degree video and 3D have each had waves of enthusiasm. Immersive media have real uses, but widespread everyday adoption has repeatedly proved slower than predictions. It is reasonable to watch them without assuming they will become mainstream.
Fully personalised or interactive films. Branching narratives and personalised videos exist and are interesting, but audiences often prefer to sit back and watch. Whether they become common is uncertain.
“The end of” anything. Claims that cinemas, television or physical media will vanish by a given date have repeatedly been overstated. Older forms often survive in changed roles.
Open questions
- Trust. As synthetic video improves, viewers may need better ways to judge authenticity. The role of verification and labelling is evolving.
- Costs. Delivering video at scale is expensive. Whether current pricing and ad models support the spending is unresolved.
- Regulation. Rules on children’s protection, copyright, privacy and platform responsibility differ by country and are likely to keep changing. This is not legal advice.
- Attention. There is a limited amount of viewer time. More supply does not guarantee more viewing.
- Creator livelihoods. Platforms’ policies, payment terms and tools can change, which affects whether creators can make a living.
How to read future claims
When reading a prediction, it helps to ask who is making it, what they gain from it, what evidence is offered, and whether it describes something already measurable or an expectation. Prefer claims that explain a mechanism over those that simply assert a big number.
Online video has changed repeatedly and fast, and it will likely keep changing. The most dependable approach is to expect continued mixing of old and new forms, and to stay sceptical of any single story about what comes next.